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Wednesday 23rd, July 2008 -- 23:39 GMT
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EURUSD Anchored To Parity As Positioning Flips
Posted: 16-05-2008 , 00:05 GMT

EUR/USD Ratio: -1.04
Signal: Bullish



Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
EURUSD 1.10 -1.04 49% 1.49% Bullish


EURUSD – The uncertainty surrounding the EURUSD’s prevailing trend is clearly reflected in speculative positioning. After the past three week’s Speculative Sentiment Index readings reported a modest skew towards the long side, the gauge fell victim to its proximity to parity - and the doubt in direction - and flipped to -1.04. However, this is certainly not a very significant flip considering there has been no substantial bias for either side of the market since EURUSD topped out at 1.60. What’s more, the pair’s ratio has seen a number of intraday dips below parity over the past few weeks. Nonetheless, this modest negative reading follows a 1.10 figure last Thursday and 1.31 from two weeks ago. The details of the report further suggest that retailers are waiting for direction before taking a trade as positioning has changed little. Long positions slipped only 2.2% since yesterday and were 3.1% lower through the week. On the other side of the market, shorts were 2.7% higher from Wednesday and 6.3% stronger since last week. Overall, open interest has held relatively stable - rising 1.9% from last week and holding 2.8% above the monthly average. As a contrarian indicator, the SSI reading now points to gains, but with little conviction.

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